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The patterns that unfolded this spring across the US are likely to be maintained this summer. In general, the West Coast was unseasonably wet and cool with unusual rains in California in June. The PNW is unseasonably dry with the jet stream dropping cool and wet conditions to the south on a regular basis. As a result of the unusual storm jet path the northwest and northern Mountain regions are in the grips of a drought pattern. The cosmic side of these things can be seen in the placement of the disturbance diamond over the west this season. This is illustrated in figure 1.
In this image the disturbance diamond is placed over the mountain areas in the west. This is because of the placement of the eclipse points over western Africa and the mid-Pacific. The jet curves shown in the chart are the 72° jet curves from each eclipse point. This spring, consistent high-pressure values were generated on the curves by a combination of Jupiter over the mid-Pacific and the lunar node over the eastern Atlantic. The rhythms of these two planets have consistently supported the creation of a zone of high-pressure that sometimes formed to the south over the mountains and then surged to the north to block at a high latitude. When the high latitude block was in effect the storm jet moved to the south on the West Coast. This was the source of the unusually cool spring. This pattern is illustrated by the red arrow that is moving from north to south on the West Coast. This pattern was the source of a highly unusual storm in mid June that brought winter-like rains to California. For the West, the weather should become warmer as the summer develops but it should be interspersed with blocks of time when the cool and moist breezes keep things moderate in California and very dry in the PNW. The current water year for the West Coast south of Mt. Shasta is far above normal. The current water year for the West Coast above Mt. Shasta is far below normal. These trends should continue into September when the next eclipse should shift the patterns significantly. At that time the disturbance diamond will straddle the West Coast.
Early this spring when the block that arose from the disturbance diamond was establisihed over the southern Plains, the storm jet went far to the north and transited the continent horizontally until it got to the northeast where it then formed troughs and created many situations of cool and wet weather. There were even a few nor'easter storms that came up the coast in June as winter-like patterns unfolded there. This should continue through the major portion of the summer months.
Later in the spring as the Hawaii and Bermuda highs moved north a slightly different pattern emerged. When the high grew over the southern Plains it squeezed into the northwest and pushed the storm jet to the north over western Canada. This is often a rain signal in the Corn Belt in the summer months as the jet brings cool weather into the Midwest. However, this year, at the same time that the high-pressure was surging into the northwest a branch of the high-pressure moved over the eastern parts of the Corn Belt. The resulting pattern is a modified omega block.
In an omega block areas to the west of the ridge receive unusual amounts of rain at the same time that areas just a few hundred miles to the east of the deluge are dry as a bone. This is because the storm jet moves first to the south and forms a low. The jet then loops north around the ridge and then forms another low pressure area to the east of the ridge. As can be seen from the chart, an area extending from the High Plains in the south and up into the Central States has had only sporadic and widely placed rain events while to the west over Minnesota and the northern High Plains and western portions of the Corn Belt there has arisen a strong drought situation. The long-term outlook for precipitation in these areas is not positive. It looks like Iowa, Indiana and Illinois will be exceptionally dry this summer. In the very long range outlook this summer may be the beginning of a drought period that will reach a peak in 2007.
On the West Coast
On the West coast July should be predictably hot to the south; but more unsettled and cooler to the north with periods of cool air intruding to the south early in the month. As July gives way to August the heat should become stronger. July in the northern Mountain States should bring unsettled weather with moderate rains midmonth, and a possible strong storm late. In the mid continental area a cool wet pattern in the western portions of the Corn Belt for most of the spring should yield to drier conditions briefly in early July with sporadic rains returning later in the month. In the eastern Corn Belt look for continued dryness except for the first week of July. Conditions should continue towards dryness through August. On the east coast look for a continuation of the cooler and wetter pattern in the north with warming to the south throughout July.
August on the West Coast should continue with dry and warm conditions to the south but late August should see a shift to a moderate wetter and cooler pattern for the PNW. The moderate rainy pattern should extend into the northern Mountain States in late August. August in the mid continent should see a dry pattern continue to the east in the Ohio valley but continued cooler than average and moist conditions in the western Corn Belt. The northeast should continue cooler and wetter than normal with growing warmth to the south.
September should bring moderate rain conditions to the west especially in the PNW. Below MT Shasta September should only bring moderate fronts later in the month. Farther east in the Mountain States settled weather should dominate through September with dry and warm conditions. September in the High Plains and Midwest should be dry and above normal temperatures until October. In the east look for moderate conditions turning colder with a threat of early storms in northern regions later in September.