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Outlook for fall 2005 - 09.15.05


New eclipse points put strong focus on Gulf of Alaska and the Maritime Provinces.



Fig.1


Fig.1

In 2005 the placement of the new eclipse points in October, puts a strong focus on the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea in the west and on the Maritime Provinces in the northeast. This position is shown in figure1. . As can be seen from figure 1 the projected jet curves from the new eclipse points positions the disturbance diamond over the Great Basin and over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The new eclipse points are reckoned by taking the position of the Sun on the day of the eclipse reckoned sidereally and projecting it onto the Northern Hemisphere. The new points for October 2005 are 28° Virgo for the lunar position and 15° Virgo for the solar position.

The eclipse analogs for the fall of 2005 are oct. 67, sept. 77, oct. 86, and oct. 95. This means that on those years the eclipse points were very close to the positions of the autumnal eclipse points in 2005. Included in these years is the very significant turning point for the eastern Pacific the year 1977. In that year the Aleutian Low moved into a regime that endured into the early 1990's. This pattern produced strong enhancement of the Aleutian low with a displacement of the Alaskan Gyre to the south(blue circular arrow). The Alaskan Gyre is a large wheel of ocean water that circulates in a clockwise direction in the Gulf of Alaska. It regulates the jet stream into the West Coast. This feature is a potent area for the emergence of weather patterns over the continent


Fig.2


Fig.2

Figure 2 depicts the position of the eclipses in the summer of 2005. This is given so that a contrast can be made between that set of points and the new set of points. One of the most potent events in the model used in Doc Weather is when a planet is moving very near to the eclipse points or actually between the points. The recent unusual weather bears this observation out.

On the 29th of August 2005, the lunar node over the Atlantic was between the two sets of points influencing them to high-pressure values. At the same time, Jupiter was influencing the 72° jet curves over the western end of the Gulf of Mexico to high pressure. These two high pressure areas steered the track of the storm into the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This is depicted by the red arrow. Then, on the 29th of August, Jupiter, near to the western points went conjunct to the solar reflex point. This placed low pressure on the solar reflex point but stimulated high pressure on the lunar reflex point. Hurricanes need a strong area of high pressure near to them to enhance their outflow. The combination of the lunar node and Jupiter provided that essential element to the storm. Hurricane Katrina made a landfall at New Orleans.on the day that Jupiter moved in arc to conjunct the eclipse point coincident with a radical drop in intensity for the storm. Jupiter has since been traveling between the two eclpse points. It moves in arc every five days keeping the weather unsettled over the PNW (72° jet curve from the solar point at 15° Virgo)since the end of August.

This will soon change when the eclipse grid is shifted by the eclipse events in October 2005. The result will be that Jupiter will no longer be between the points but will fall just outside of them.This is a short stay between the points for a major block building planet like Jupiter. When a dynamic planet like Jupiter is transiting eclipse points it moves in arc every four or five days. This sets up a strong dynamic for the jet curves linked to the eclipse points. Even though Jupiter is no longer in between the two points it will continue to influence the points from the western Pacific in a dynamic way in the fall of 2005.


Fig.3


Fig.3

One of the strongest influences of Jupiter is the establishment of strong high-pressure blocking patterns. During blocking phases the jet stream on the West Coast is pushed up along the mountains into western Canada. This often results in two things. One is that the continental climate regime shifts to a cold mode. This means that the eastern third of the continent experiences stronger cold for longer periods during the winter. This is depicted as the blue arrow in figure 3. The western states in the north are often drier and milder in such a pattern since the jet moves from south to north in the west. This makes the PNW and the northern mountain states prone to drought. The storm track tends to cycle down out of western Canada and cross the Great Lakes in a blustery way. The northeast and mid Atlantic regions can expect increased cold and storm sequences starting in mid-November when the first Jupiter blocking patterns arise on the new eclipse grid.

The other pattern that arises from the disturbance diamond being over the western mountains is that the jet stream in the eastern Pacific tends to make end runs around the southern end of the block into southern California. This pattern historically supports the formation of several episodes of what is known as the Pineapple Express. This is a series of storms into the west coast that come from Hawaii. This is depicted in figure 3 by a warm red arrow. There is potential from Mt. Shasta to the south for these warm storms to increase the threat of floods when the warm tropical rains fall on the snow in the upper elevations.


Fig.4


Fig.4

The last instance of this type of flood was in 1996-97. It is significant that 1996-97 is an analog year for 2005 since flood control is on the minds of the urban planners for western cities like Sacramento, California. The chart in figure 4 is an adaptation of a National Climatic Diagnostics Center (NDCD) chart of the 500mb anomalies during the flood. It is a composite of the anomalous pressure areas during the eclipse period from November 96 to april 97 and the eclipse grid from Doc Weather. We can see that the anomalous high-pressure (warm tone) over the eastern Pacific is coincident with the placement of the disturbance diamond of the eclipse grid over the western US. A strong low over the central Pacific(cold tone) is arching up and over the high on the continent bringing cold down into the west coast and the High Plains. There is the placement of a strong high over Alaska. Climatologically, the placement of a strong high over Alaska is coincident with a stronger than usual low over Hudson Bay. A high over the southeast balances the Hudson Bay low on the East Coast. This pattern created a strong trough over the West Coast in the last days of December 1996 that brought strong snow to the upper elevations of the Sierras. This is depicted by the arrow over that area.


Fig.5


Fig.5

In the last image the solar reflex and lunar reflex points over the eastern Atlantic, have both switched to low pressure values. Low pressure on the 72° jet curves from both of these points was coincident with the emerging of low pressure in the eastern Pacific. As a result of this shift to low pressure, the central Pacific low has spread into the coast bringing with it a Pineapple Express storm from Hawaii( blue to red arrow). These warm rains fell on the snow of the previous week and melted it creating a flood. In the northeast a low became situated over Hudson Bay and kept storm energies coming into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states.

In the fall of 2005 the eclipse grid is in a similar position to this classic flood pattern for the Central Valley of California and for wet cyles into the Northeast. So it would be interesting to start looking for similar patterns to the analog just described. As far as timing, the second eclipse of the fall 2005 period is in the middle of October. After that, these shifts should usher in a wet pattern for the western states and the Northeast with dryness in the PNW. Starting in the second week of November high-pressure should dominate the charts bringing strong cold to the Midwest and warmer temperatures in the western states. December looks like it will predominate with wet cycles in both east and west.

These patterns would make it prudent to watch for back to back storms on the West Coast, where the first storm puts snow on the mountains and the second storm tracks from Hawaii. Opportunities for this type of storm to arise begin December 2005. More about this pattern will be said in the next season outlook for winter 2006.