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An advanced look at El Nino - 11.02.06


Doc Weather takes a long range look at the potentials for the currently faltering El Nino.

It will be interesting to watch the progress of the present moderate El Nino At the present time a complex choreography of planetary motion is taking place in the Pacific near Hawaii. This complex of movements began in mid September.


Fig.1


Fig.1
Early September 2006

On September 14 Mercury, moving east, passed Mars in the longitude of Japan. This is a tandem motion that was coincident with an abnormal warming in the central Pacific just to the east of the two planets. This was the seed for the present El Nino. Mercury continued eastward rapidly, as Mars continued eastward at a more leisurely pace.


Fig.2


Fig.2
October 29,2006 current El Nino

On October 29, Mercury entered Scorpio and Mars is now in Libra where Venus, moving direct to the west of Hawaii, crossed Mars. The two planets have been moving in tandem getting closer to this crossing since early in October. From the chart we can see that there are now three planets transiting the eastern Pacific. This pattern has been coincident with an abnormal warming in the eastern Pacific to the east of these three planets. The abnormal warming off of the western coast of Peru is presently the further development of the current El Nino.


Fig.3


Fig.3
Mercury retrograde October to November 2006

However, at this same time starting on October 27 and continuing until October 29 Mercury is on retrograde station just to the west of Hawaii. In Doc Weather this kind of pattern is called a squeeze The motion of Mercury is now opposing the motion of Mars and Venus moving in tandem. Generally the result from this type of event is that the warm water stops moving eastward and begins to spread out in the space between the planets forming the squeeze. This development often runs counter to the further eastward displacement of the warm water. This sometimes hinders the further development of an El Nino pattern. The station of Mercury is very brief but the retrograde motion of Mercury continues into mid November. This may be significant enough to impede the eastward movement of the warm water and shift the center of the warmth to the ocean near Hawaii. The impedance should last until the last week in November. It will be interesting to watch this development.
A good website for tracking the development of the current El Nino is Current Operational SST


Fig.4


Fig.4

Then in December with Mercury shifting back to direct motion there will once again be an armada of three planets crossing the eastern Pacific at the same time. This should shift the warmth against the coast and an El Nino pattern should result. All three of these planets will be transiting the West Coast at their maximum southerly declination. This often results in the jet stream on the West Coast plunging to the south bringing rains into the areas south of Mt.
Shasta, while the pattern keeps the areas to the north dry.

By the beginning of January Mercury and Venus will have passed the longitude of the West Coast. By the end of January Mars will also pass the longitude of the West Coast bringing an end to the warmth phase of the El Nino.