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El Nino update #3 mid November 2006 - 11.13.06


What is happening over the Pacific west of Hawaii may have strong import on this wiinter's weather.



Fig.1


Fig.1

The eastern Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) chart for November 6 is shown in the first figure. Look for this chart here The cold mass in the northern central Pacific is definitely moving southward towards the warm tongue at the equator when compared to the last chart in the previous article. The warm tongue coming from the west coast of Peru is diffuse and shows signs of becoming less robust in the decrease of very strong red areas of warmth. Cold areas along the west coast of Peru continue to appear in the source area of the plume as noted in the last article. Remember that Mercury is retrograde just to the west of Hawaii as it opposes a formidable flotilla of Jupiter, Venus and Mars moving direct towards the Americas in the vicinity of the dateline. The area between the arrows near the dateline is the area of the squeeze that is occurring between the four planets. Generally when this type of situation arises the area of the squeeze becomes a kind of focal point for the motion of the water in the ocean. Warmth that may be moving eastward at the equator usually diminishes and the circulation of the eastern Pacific circulation system becomes altered. This most often results in a pause in the development of an unfolding El Nino.


Fig.2


Fig.2

In the second figure we see the situation five days later on November 11. The general condition of the warmth plume is still in a diminished state. Although the cool zone in the northern part of the eastern Pacific is not more pronounced it appears to be settling against the warmth plume to the south of it and spreading eastward towards the west coast of Mexico. The arrows in the second diagram are drawn to illustrate a possible way of visualizing the influence that the squeeze might be having on the warmth pool in the mid Pacific. In Doc Weather, the squeeze pattern most often results in a spreading out of the initial raised Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) that are defining the El Nino. The spreading often occurs in the area of the squeeze. Using the arrows as a visualizing guide to the chart it is fairly easy to imagine the warmth that forms an enlarged pool to the west of Hawaii spiraling clockwise out of the squeeze area and pushing the cold down on to the warmth tongue between 160°W and 120°W. The long warm arc extending from west of Hawaii to 140°W is an image of the spreading of the warmth that only a half a month ago was streaming along the equatorial Kelvin wave paths towards the western coast of South America to emerge there as an anomalously warm coastal upwelling known as El Nino.

Just as a consideration, Doc Weather is looking at the last five days of November to be a shift once again to the building phase of the current El Nino. From November 16 to November 21 Mercury will be on station about to go into direct motion again. The hard station is on the 18th. This change should become perceptible in the area around Hawaii some time in the last week of November. On December 10, Mercury, Venus and Jupiter will all be moving in direct motion and in a very unusual pattern they will all be within a few degrees of each other just to the west of Hawaii. These planets in formation will be crossed by Mercury just coming out of station and moving direct. In Doc Weather this type of pattern is called a slingshot. The added impetus and the combination of the new forward motion pulse of Mercury should once again start a strong warm coastal upwelling off of Peru. They will all be traveling in tandem at a low declination as they cross the West Coast of North America. In Doc Weather that longitude is considered to be at 15° Sagittarius. Declination, station and tandem transits are several patterns that are involved in this crossing that will be the subject of the next few bulletins as the responses related to them unfold in time.

Of the quartet Venus will be out ahead crossing the coast on December 20. The next to cross will be Mercury on January 3. Then Mars will cross on January 15. This crossing should severely diminish the force of what is shaping up to be a fairly intense event through December and January. Watch for the jet stream to trend towards the south on the West Coast as these planets cross the coast.