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El Nino update November 17, 2006 - 11.18.06


Mercury is now on station over the dateline. Conditions are likely to change.



Fig.1


Fig.1
November 13 Mercury retrograde

In the first image for November 13 the broad stream of warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific can be seen extending to the west. A cool mass of water centered between 120W and 160W defines the upper border of the warm current. Another pool of cold water to the south of the current between 100W and140W defines the lower border of the warm tongue. On November 13 Mercury had reached its maximum retrograde motion near the dateline. The arrows point to the extent that warmth has traveled from the area of the retrograde squeeze described in the last article. The warmth off of the coast of the Pacific Northwest can be seen to be part of this circulation. This may seem far fetched but the next image will show how the halting of the retrograde motion by Mercury is coincident with a dramatic reduction in the extent of spreading of the warmth from this center near the dateline.


Fig.2


Fig.2
November 17 mercury station

In this image the condition of the eastern Pacific four days later is shown. The Mercury station in the middle of a congested group of planets appears to have halted the westward flow of warm water at the equator and the area near the dateline is now the site of a broader swath of warmth. In addition the arrows show that the curving streams of warmth that have been moving out of the center of the planetary congestion are now much reduced in extent and density. The large pool of warm water off of the PNW coast is almost absent and the warmth depicted by the lower arrow has pulled back from its eastward maximum and appears to be retreating to the west. On November 21 Mercury will go into direct motion once again near the dateline. As it once again moves eastward it will first cross Mars in late November and then Jupiter on December 9. We can expect from this shift a strong enhancement of the warmth current off of the west coast of Peru as the Kelvin wave activity coming from the central Pacific is once again supported by the direct motion of a whole armada of planets moving towards the West Coast of the US.