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El Nino: West Coast rains 1997 - 11.21.06


The current cluster of planets in the eastern Pacific may be involved in significant rains for the West Coast this year if past patterns hold true.

In October and early November 1997 during tandem transits of Venus and Mars at maximum southern declination, polar breakouts happened at high latitudes in the longitude of these two transiting planets. A polar breakout is the emergence of a strong leg of the jet stream that digs southward from the arctic front into lower latitudes. The digging trough brings with it cold weather and storms out of the Gulf of Alaska. In October and November of 1997 polar breakouts occurred on the two polar 90 lines as first Venus and then Mars and Venus in tandem crossed the points. The general result was the formation of polar breakout troughs that began southward digging patterns starting at high latitudes and digging along the 90° lines associated with the 90° point to the eclipse points. The breakout troughs started their southward motion as the planets crossed the 90° point to the eclipse. However, there were times when the troughs could not penetrate southern latitudes due to blocking patterns on the continent and over the eastern Pacific.


Fig.1


Fig.1
October '97 Gulf of Alaska flow pattern

Typically, in October '97 and early November '97 as a planet crossed the 90° point from either eclipse point, a low would begin digging to the south in the longitude of one of the 90° lines (thick red lines). This trough would then enclose (form concentric isobars to resemble a target) at high latitude and then become a dynamic eddy feature of a generally zonal (horizontal) flow across the Gulf of Alaska (pale red arrow). Low latitude ridging (blue) either over the southwest or just off of the coast prevented a more meridional (N / S orientation of the jet stream) regime from establishing. This tended to bring unusually heavy rains to the PNW and kept the areas south of Mt Shasta cooler than normal but dry. The ridging was linked to the placement of a 45° jet curve (thick blue curve) over the intermountain area of the western US that was projected from the eastern points, as well as a 72°jet curve (thick blue curve) extending across the eastern Pacific between Hawaii and Vancouver Island that was projected from the western points. The 72° jet curve from the western points was part of the disturbance diamond (yellow) complex that was placed between Hawaii and the West Coast at that time.


Fig.2


Fig.2
Disturbance diamond for October and November '97

During these transits, highs that formed at high latitudes in the longitude of the disturbance diamond sometimes formed spectacular surges north into the Arctic (Alaska and northern Siberia). This pattern generally emerged when all four legs of the disturbance diamond were stimulated to high pressure values (blue).


Fig.3


Fig.3
45° jet curve influences on the continent

When only the eastern eclipse points situated over the western Atlantic carried high pressure values the blocking ridge tended to form over the southwest in the longitude of the 45° jet curves from the eastern points. These influences tended to keep the jet stream to the north on the West Coast even though Mars and Venus were transiting the eastern Pacific at their maximum southerly declination in October and November 2007. Often the passage of a convoy of planets at maximum southerly declination brings stormy weather to the West Coast. During these transits that was not always the case as the jet stream tended to stay to the north along the West Coast when the eclipse grid was not supportive of low pressure patterns.


Fig.4


Fig.4
Late Nov.'97 rains on the West Coast

The exception to this pattern was during the last week of November when there was a tandem crossing of 15° Sagittarius by both planets. At that time they were both near to maximum southern declination. The polar jet on the West Coast formed tortuous loops and provided anomalous rains for the entire West Coast that were particularly intense for southern California. A very strong and large low pressure area centered directly between Hawaii and the West Coast. This placement was on the two 72° jet curves from the western points over the western Pacific (red curves). These points were actively aspected by the lunar node to low pressure values. The maximum southerly transit of Venus and Mars was supported by low pressure values on the eclipse grid. The result was the southerly penetration of low pressure troughs during the tandem transit of the coast. It took the two influences of a maximum southerly declination tandem transit and the opening of the storm door on the West Coast due to low pressure values on the two 72° jet curves from the western points to manifest El Nino rains south of Mt. Shasta.

The counter-part to these motions is presently unfolding in the central Pacific. Venus, Mars, and Jupiter are in the vicinity of Hawaii. Mercury will soon be in the vicinity of Hawaii. The set of 90° points is in the longitude of Hawaii. These patterns are analogs of the two placements of the eclipse grid shown in the previous images. This means that in December 2006 and January 2007 these planets will be transiting the 90° points in concentrated intervals and that if there is support for low pressure on the eclipse grid heavy rains will be the result south of Mt. Shasta. The following list highlights these upcoming events.

November 29 Venus will cross the lunar 90° point in Scorpio near Hawaii. There may be support in the eclipse grid for breakout troughs to move to the south in the first week of December spreading rains into California and instigating a more El Nino like rain pattern.

December 11 Venus crosses the second 90° point in Sagittarius but there is little support from the grid. Most likely fronts will move into PNW.

December 18 Mercury crosses the lunar point in Scorpio. There is support for low pressure on the grid in the eastern Pacific. Look for wet fronts to the south.

December 26 Mars crosses the lunar point with strong support from the grid. Mercury crosses the solar point in Sagittarius on the next day. These transits should result in significant rains on the West Coast south of Mt. Shasta.

January 16, 2007 Mars crosses the solar point in Sagittarius. There is not much support from the grid for this transit. Look for the storm track to keep to the north. At this time the El Nino influence should be fading strongly due to the planets moving across the continent, so this may diminish the occurance of unusual rains from the current El Nino.