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Midwest Outlook 2005 - 12.01.04


A twelve-month forecast of the significant weather events of 2005 for the Midwest.

In order that you have the maximum satisfaction using the outlook section of Doc Weather it is useful to refer to the article Using the Outlooks that gives indications about some of the features of this section. If you do this before going into the outlooks and also look in the feature things to look for to find more information about the charts for the year 2005 your reading pleasure will be greatly enhanced.


Fig.1


Fig.1

Figure 1 shows the jet stream being pushed far to the north by high-pressure areas on the continent. The jet then drops into the Midwest and the Northeast bringing weather into those areas. Doc Weather feels that this is going to be a dominant pattern this coming year.

The chart also shows why this forecast is being made. It contains a geometric set of curves known in Doc Weather as jet curves . These harmonious looking jet curves come from both the eastern and western pair of eclipse points. In the chart these jet curves are depicted as having a high- pressure value on them. Jupiter in the west and the node in the east should dominate these curves. When both are set to high pressure then expect a strong high to grow in the vicinity of the 72° jet curves from each set of eclipse points.The chart in figure 1 shows how the jet stream should respond when high-pressure dominates both sets of jet curves.

The 72° jet curves cross each other over the Great Basin. The image shows that when Jupiter and the node are working together to produce high pressure on the jet curves we should look for frigid temperatures in the eastern third of the country this winter.


Fig.2


Fig.2

This second image shows the resulting pattern when the eastern and western pairs of eclipse points are influenced towards low pressure simultaneously. Then the polar jet stream moves horizontally across the continent bringing milder weather farther south but enhancing the production of snow in the Great Lakes area and the Northeast. These two patterns should be the major storm patterns this winter as the eclipse positions put the crossing point of the 72° jet curves over the Great Basin. With this as a background let's look at a long term forecast for the Midwest as seen by Doc Weather for 2005.

January begins with rain and snow in the first week followed by cold and then another storm from Kansas to Ohio at midmonth. Look for brief clearing and then a very strong storm with a cold wave following at month's end. The major weather maker is the cluster of jet curves from the eastern and western pair of eclipse points that converge over the High Plains during the winter. Strong support from both Jupiter in the west and the lunar node in the east should keep storms coming into the continent for the first three weeks of January. The pattern should shift to several warmer Alberta Clippers early in February as Jupiter and the node shift the values on the grid to low pressure. There should be a zonal flow across Canada to replace the meridional trough formation from Canada of the first few weeks of January. Then, back to a trough formation in the Midwest bringing cold between Kansas and Ohio at the end of the third week. Watch for a shift to milder and more settled weather at the end of February to continue into the middle of March as intermittent values from Jupiter and the node depress the tendency for strong block and trough formation. A Jupiter motion in arc on the western eclipse points in the last week looks to stimulate the weather to bring March out like a lion. Cooler and unsettled weather with intermittent thunderstorms from mid-March should carry over until the last few days of March when severe tornado warnings should be seen from N Texas to Kansas. Venus is pulling away from and Mars is approaching the polar 90 lines over the Great Basin at this time. These rapidly shifting events should stimulate strong vortexial potentials in the High Plains just as the Moon transits the eclipse points at month's end putting a lot of unsettled energies into the eclipse grid. This looks like a major confluence of motion in arc events.

April should then turn clear and mild with gradual warming along the Gulf Coast and the High Plains and east. An eclipse in the second week of April should bring unsettled conditions into week 3 especially along the Gulf Coast. The unsettled energies will also find support from a Mercury station direct aspect during the time of the eclipse. Watch for strong storm energies from the northeast to meet with monsoon patterns from the gulf Coast at this time. The Gulf Coast monsoon should then support strong storms in the central states at month's end. May should see intermittent patterns with moderate fronts and rains in the central states early and late. Jupiter and the node trade off creating low- pressure values over the west during May with many conflicting shifts. This pattern usually yields intermittent fronts that can bring locally heavy rains to the Midwest but not the two- day soakers that can change the complexion of a planting season. Intermittent scattered fronts at about seven day intervals over the whole month will be punctuated by widespread good rains in the second week of June. The new eclipse positions are slightly to the west of the old positions. The 45° jet curve from the eastern pair of eclipse points is close up against the east coast of Florida this summer. This should act to stimulate the Bermuda high when high- pressure values from the node are present on the eastern pair. When the high over Bermuda grows and is situated close to the East Coast, then the Gulf of Mexico monsoon is stimulated to bring moisture up into the Midwest. This should allow for the entry of troughs into the Midwest in the late summer and early fall. High pressure over the inter mountain west should push the jet stream far to the north in the west bringing cold air down to meet the moist monsoon.

Early July should bring dryness to the northern and western areas of the Midwest with possibly very moist conditions in the Central States. Late July and early August should see a break in this pattern to dryness in the east and intermittent rains to the west. A period of strong storms in the Chicago area should arise in mid August followed by a week of widespread warm and dry weather then ending the month with moderate rains in the eastern sectors. A significant shift for Jupiter and the node in late August should reinforce a blocking high pattern over the Northwest and send the continental jet stream up into Canada. Look for a cold breakout into the Midwest at the end of the first week of September. The rest of the month looks dry to the west with intermittent fronts to the northeast leading to widespread storm energies in the third week, except for western regions. October brings a new set of eclipses that pushes the eclipse grid farther to the west. This new placement finds the polar 90 lines placed squarely over the mountain states and the east coast bracketed with 45° jet curves from the eastern pair. This means that any influences from the eastern pair should significantly influence the east coast for the fall and winter of 2005. Also, the 72° jet curves from the eastern pair are sitting directly in the continental storm gate in the Pacific Northwest. This is a significant placement for these curves also in response to the action of the lunar node on the eastern pair of points. Early October should see a continuation of dryness to the west and moderate settled weather in most other areas with strong cold coming into the Dakotas and reaching the Gulf Coast at month's end. November begins with cold bursts from Minnesota south into the central states as the lunar node brings low pressure values into the Great Lakes area. Storms begin to arrive in the central states by the third week and continue into the last week of the month. December arrives also with a storm in the first week, but then warmer and wetter conditions arise across the north, as Pacific Maritime air masses make their way into the Continent bringing snows and rain to the Great Lakes near Christmas.