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East Coast Outlook for 2005 - 07.16.04


A twelve-month forecast of the significant weather events of 2005 for the East Coast.

In order that you have the maximum satisfaction using the outlook section of Doc Weather it is useful to refer to the article Using the Outlooks that gives indications about some of the features of this section. If you do this before going into the outlooks and also look in the feature things to look for to find more information about the charts for the year 2005 your reading pleasure will be greatly enhanced.


Fig.1


Fig.1

Figure 1 shows the jet stream being pushed far to the north by high-pressure areas on the continent. The jet then drops into the Midwest and the Northeast bringing weather into those areas. Doc Weather feels that this is going to be a dominant pattern this coming year.

The chart also shows why this forecast is being made. It contains a geometric set of curves known in Doc Weather as jet curves . These harmonious looking jet curves come from both the eastern and western pair of eclipse points. In the chart these jet curves are depicted as having a high- pressure value on them. Jupiter in the west and the node in the east should dominate these curves. When both are set to high pressure then expect a strong high to grow in the vicinity of the 72° jet curves from each set of eclipse points.The chart in figure 1 shows how the jet stream should respond when high-pressure dominates both sets of jet curves.

The 72° jet curves cross each other over the Great Basin. The image shows that when Jupiter and the node are working together to produce high pressure on the jet curves we should look for frigid temperatures in the eastern third of the country this winter.


Fig.2


Fig.2

This second image shows the resulting pattern when the eastern and western pairs of eclipse points are influenced towards low pressure simultaneously. Then the polar jet stream moves horizontally across the continent bringing milder weather farther south but enhancing the production of snow in the Great Lakes area and the Northeast. These two patterns should be the major storm patterns this winter as the eclipse positions put the crossing point of the 72° jet curves over the Great Basin. With this as a background let's look at a long term forecast for the East Coast as seen by Doc Weather for 2005.

Look for storms late in week 1 and 2. The motions on the eastern and western pair are mixed for the first week then a strong low- pressure value arises in the second week over the Maritimes. Watch the Northeast for unusual events at that time. On the 14th the node shifts to high-pressure values against the coast. This should block any transiting storm's progress and send it up the coast. Watch for a strong nor'easter mid way through week 3. In late January cold should dominate the mid Atlantic states. Then another nor'easter should add to the misery followed by cold late in the first week of February as the node shifts to low-pressure values against the east coast. Watch for a cold front late in the second week as the storm center bringing Pacific moisture across the northern tier, shifts into New England by virtue of a low-pressure center in the Pacific Northwest. A final cold week with storms can be expected before a break in week 4 of February as fronts should start moving directly off of the coast and the trough in the Maritimes should weaken. In early March look for variable weather resulting in thunderstorms and squalls from Washington to New York. This should shift to low-pressure in the Rockies allowing the storm jet to swing horizontally across the country bringing milder weather to the northeast but thunderstorms and unsettled weather to the mid Atlantic coast. A gradual return to the East Coast trough pattern should start in the latter half of March bringing cold weather and winter storms to the East Coast as the node on the eastern pair of eclipse points dominates the continent with a return to high pressure on the jet curves.

Eclipses in mid-April should keep the pattern unsettled on the East Coast especially during the second week. Watch for a strong storm on the coast early in the second week. As Mercury "approaches":planetaryapproachandretreat the eastern pair in the third week look for cold and storms to the north. Warming from the south in the third week should yield to cooler weather at month's end as a spring return to winter finds a trough once again appearing in the Northeast. May should see the activation of a Kentucky to New York storm track keeping the weather wet and unseasonably cool most of the month. As the storm activity shifts to the Midwest look for below normal temperatures in the eastern third with increased monsoon activity in the southeast late in May as a coming attraction for the summer. This trend should continue through June with the first real warmth arriving in the last week. July should return to the cool/wet pattern on the eastern seaboard until mid month when warm trends arise in the south and mid Atlantic states. Watch for cool to linger in New England while the southeast becomes soggy. The node that has an extended stay at high- pressure values through late June and most of July dominate these patterns. August should not change this overall pattern with warm and moist to the south and moderate to cool in the Northeast with strong rains late in the last two weeks. Weak rains with cool to moderate temperatures in the north should characterize the September shift into fall with good rains with widespread coverage in the third week as a shift in the node establishes a Greenland Block in the northeast sending the jet stream to the south in the eastern third of the continent. Look for the first snow in the northeast in the last week of September. An October eclipse will shift the eclipse grid to the west putting the 72° jet curves from both pairs of eclipse points strongly to the west over the Great Basin. This move should allow the polar jet to drop into the continent much farther to the west than in the summer. This means that the tendency towards very cold and unseasonable weather in the Northeast in particular and the East Coast in general should change in the last week of October. Look for cool and unsettled weather in October, especially in weeks three and four. The unsettled weather should carry over into November with a break in mid November as high-pressure establishes itself over the Northwest sending strong cold into the Midwest. Look for cold temperatures in the southeast late in the second week of November and a strong storm in the third week. Expect nor'easter patterns in weeks 1 and 2 of December with warming towards Christmas and unsettled again for the New Year.