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Weekly predictions December 2004 - 11.15.04


The weather forecasts for December 2004 accompanied by Doc Weather's charts.

December 2004 week 1 three heavy frosts then a storm
At the end of November a strong high-pressure area should arise over the PNW pushing the polar jet stream south into the West Coast accompanied by a cold front. At the same time the continental jet should bring cold air into the Midwest along a track from the Dakotas to Denver also connected to a cold front. In the first week of December this pattern should strengthen and then modify by allowing the polar jet from Alaska to drop even farther south on the West Coast. The continental weather should continue in a pattern similar to the last week of November. The first snapshot is for the middle of the first week.


Fig.1


Fig.1

West Coast- Look for a strong cold surge from the Bering Sea into the PNW and N.CA, and a strong disturbance from Vancouver, south into N California, 3rd to 5th.
High Plains- Watch for a very cold, strong front from the 5th to the 7th.
Corn Belt- There should be the gradual descent of severe cold into the whole Midwest at the end of the week accompanied by storms. A high over Texas should keep the Gulf Coast free of this influence but the storm track should pass from Oklahoma to the Mid Atlantic states.
East Coast- Cold with storms should arrive on the East Coast between the 7th and the 9th.


Fig.2


Fig.2

December 2004 week 2 onion skin very thin, mild winter coming in
The snapshot shows the period between the 10th and the 12th. The high over Alaska should weaken somewhat and drift to the east, allowing the polar jet to move to the north in the East Pacific. Pacific frontal passages should be through the PNW but not below Mt. Shasta. On the continent the polar jet should drop to the south more to the west than last week bringing storm energies to the High Plains. Look for a continental track from N Texas to the Great Lakes.

West Coast- Cold to the north and warmer to the south with fronts into the PNW, 9th and the 12th.
High Plains- Fast moving cold fronts, UT and Dakotas into southern High Plains between the 9th and the 12th.
Corn Belt- Look for cold fronts into MN and WI dropping south into the Central States bringing moderate precipitation from the 10th to 13th.
East Coast- Cool and dry in the Mid Atlantic states until the very end of the week.


Fig.3


Fig.3

December 2004 week 3 green Christmas, white Easter
Look for a shift in the patterns for the PNW in the third week. The high-pressure in Alaska should weaken allowing the polar jet stream to run back to the north. Moderate high-pressure over the Northern High Plains should push the polar jet to the south in the Central States. An early week disturbance on the East Coast should arise along a storm track from the Corn Belt to the Mid Atlantic states.

West Coast- Wet weather into the PNW and N CA with moderate rains early in the week and then only light rains after the 21st.
High Plains- Dry and cold conditions should dominate the Dakotas and MN southward into the southern High Plains. Expect moderate fronts from the 22nd to the 24th.
Corn Belt- Moderate fronts, scattered rains, Denver to Missouri 17th to the 20th.
East Coast - Look for warmer temperatures with moderate fronts on the East Coast from the 18th to 21st.


Fig.4


Fig.4

December 2004 week 4 the thicker the corn husk the worse the winter
Once again a shift on the eclipse points should change the patterns across the United States. Look for high-pressure over the PNW and West Coast to build warming temperatures and pushing the polar jet to the north. This means a shift to colder temperatures in the Mid West and East Coast for the end of the month. The polar jet should track from the Dakotas south into the Gulf Coast states this week supported by high-pressure near Greenland.
West Coast - Look for a moderate disturbance in the PNW from the 22nd to the 24th. Expect weak fronts to the south later in the week.
High Plains- Basically look for dry and warmer conditions, with a weak front passing through Idaho on the 22nd and 23rd. Expect cold to move into the southern High Plains later in the month.
Corn Belt- Strong storm KS to OH, 27th to 30th accompanied by strong cold near the 30th.
East Coast -Watch for a storm moving up the coast near to the 28th or 29th; then dry and warmer.