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Wilma tracking update Oct 19. - 10.19.05


Wilma is now a record setting storm.



Fig.1


Fig.1

The chart depicts the conditions as of noon on the 19th of October. Wilma is now a deep and violent category 5 storm with a central pressure lower than any storm this season. The official forecast track has been moved a bit to the west. On the chart the two vertical red lines represent the high-pressure jet curves from the eclipse on the 17th. A high is on one over the western Gulf of Mexico. That high is now moving to the west (blue arrow west of Florida) to merge with the high from the central Atlantic ( blue arrow from the east moving towards Florida). It can be seen that the red jet curve from the Dominican Republic north towards Bermuda is the site of the merging. This was given as a probable scenario in Doc Weather's last report. The question now is will the merge still continue and then will the transit of the high latitude low over the Maritimes (green arrows) allow the high pressure to build a block over the southwest Atlantic that runs north and south along the jet curve up the coast. If that happens the tracking could be even farther to the west than the present official track (yellow arrow from the storm). Another factor is the low over the southwest currently moving towards the green jet curve over the Florida Panhandle. If that track is timely the trough will most likely deepen as it approaches the green jet curve. This would provide a likely trajectory for a storm moving north into the Gulf of Mexico. Let's stay tuned to this storm.