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Oct 23 Hurricane Wilma update. - 10.23.05


Wilma moves north into the Gulf of Mexico and beyond.



Fig.1


Fig.1

The image shows the position of Hurricane Wilma (yellow circle) on the 23rd of October. Most models predict that the strong trough from the low over the Great Lakes (red) will create strong westerly currents along the Gulf of Mexico to steer the storm to the east and then out into the ocean away from land. Counter to this model, the two jet curves (vertical turquoise lines) from the eclipse pair over the eastern Atlantic will be shifted to high-pressure values instead of low-pressure as has been the case for the past two weeks. Neptune, moving in arc, will support this shift. This means that the two jet curves that have been supporting the trough formation will begin to carry values for high pressure for the next three days. The shift to high-pressure should last about that long until the node once again dominates the jet curves with low-pressure. Coincidentally, this time frame is the time frame that the various models are predicting for the rapid northeastward transit of the hurricane up the Atlantic seaboard. The present forecast is for the storm to clear Florida and then veer northeast out to sea.

The blue line in the chart is the projected shift of the current mid Atlantic position of the Bermuda high when the Neptune shift takes place. If the high (turquoise) that is currently stationed over the mid Atlantic moves closer to the continent, the track for the hurricane (yellow) will be closer to the coast than is anticipated and its landfall will be farther south than currently anticipated. If the high begins to support a block off the coast, that block could possibly put the hurricane in a precarious track for the Northeast. Since the weather service is not modeling a shift of pressure values on the jet curves for the next three days the models see no shift in high-pressure over the western Atlantic in the near future. Let's keep an eye out for tomorrow's shift of Neptune as it complicates an already complicated track for this unusual storm.