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El Nino is on the move. - 08.17.04


A sudden warming of the mid Pacific in July was predicted by Doc Weather a year ago.

In the late winter of 2004, in the central Pacific, a vast area of neutral temperature water could be found. Starting in late March however, this began to change subtly. A large body of cooler water in the eastern Pacific between Hawaii and the West Coast began to shrink. This was coincident with the retrograde motion of Pluto in that area. This can be seen in figure 1.


Fig.1


Fig.1

Early in May Jupiter in the western Pacific shifted to direct motion after being retrograde for four months. This motion was coincident with a gentle rise of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the area around the dateline. In early June these motions were joined by Neptune moving retrograde as the area around the dateline grew slightly warmer. This slow warming continued at a very slow pace during the early summer. All told, Jupiter moving direct and Neptune and Pluto moving retrograde against Jupiter lasted from March to July.


Fig.2


Fig.2
In theEl Nino outlook 2005
in Doc Weather these motions were behind the prediction that a moderate warming event would happen in the mid Pacific in June or July. So far this has been the case. Remember that this warming was predicted over a year ago when the chart research was completed for this year. Looking forward to the fall, Doc Weather sees a gradual warming trend to continue into the eastern Pacific. For the rest of the scenario into the winter, keep an eye on Hotspots.