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Ivan the Terrible? - 09.08.04


If Hurricane Ivan now in the Caribbean Sea slows down just a bit the timing is ominous for Florida.

Ivan the Terrible?

Hurricane Ivan is traveling through the southern stretches of the Caribbean Sea. The National Weather Service is predicting that the storm will continue on its track for the next few days. For current bulletins on hurricanes see

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

NWS - IVAN REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES IT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS TO THE EAST. THE PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER.

Unfortunately Ivan is headed directly at the 72° jet curve from the node in the eastern Atlantic. To become another deadly hurricane Ivan would need to encounter a strong trough formation in the Mid West in order to explode on the West Coast of Florida. NWS models place it in this vicinity on the 13th.

Unfortunately, on the 15th a strong shift of the node will create a strong low- pressure area on the 72° jet curve that runs from Florida to the Dakotas. This is the same curve that Frances and Charley tracked. If the storm slows down just a bit, the timing would be perfect for a strong upper level trough to be just over the Midwest when Ivan is off of the southwest coast of Florida approaching a landfall. This would not bode well for the western coast of Florida. This would truly be Ivan the Terrible.