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Ivan Outlook - 09.09.04


The passage of Ivan and the potential shift in planetary patterns look to be an ill timed coincidence.

The progress of Hurricane Ivan has been predicted by the National Weather Service to slow down. That places the most likely placement for the storm just to the west of Florida on the 14th of September. As stated in the last Hotspots article this is a dangerous time for a dangerous storm to be in that place. When transiting the Atlantic hurricanes need to have access to a subtropical high-pressure area as they make their way from more southerly latitudes into extra tropical (above 30°N) latitudes. The presence of a high-pressure sub tropical air mass allows the upward flow of air in the hurricane to have a place to vent out of the vortex at a high altitude. In the life of Charley, Frances and now Ivan this subtropical high-pressure areas was present just off of the East Coast of North America in the western Atlantic. This feature can be seen in figure 1.


Fig.1


Fig.1

The eclipse line from the lunar eclipse point at 19° Aries over the Atlantic during the last week of August was under the influence of the node at a position that promoted strong high-pressure on the 72° jet curve from this point. This placed high-pressure close into the East Coast in the western Atlantic. This was a typical reaction to high-pressure values on a jet curve placed over the Gulf of Mexico during the summer. This placement has proved very problematic this hurricane season. This meant that storms coming out of the tropics on a track to the northwest would skirt along the southwestern side of the high and track towards the East Coast at a low latitude and then as they turned north to make their parabola into the westerlies they just happened to meet the 72° jet curve from the lunar point as it came down across the Mississippi Valley from the northwest. This would put a western block against which the storms would make a turn. Charley met this jet curve and turned northeast into Florida, Frances met this line and turned northeast as it crossed Florida and It is a good bet that Ivan will meet this 72° jet curve and turn northeast near Florida. The track of Ivan so far is almost a carbon copy of Charley.

The truly sad and terrible thing is that when Ivan gets to the western side of Florida a strong impulse towards low-pressure will be unfolding on the 72° jet curve from the lunar eclipse point. Ivan is predicted to drop in strength as it crosses Cuba. The big question for the meteorologists is will it pick up strength on the other side of Cuba and rake past the coast of Florida or will it spare the poor people of the storm-wracked state. The timing of the storm, coupled with the track, coupled with the shift of the node to low pressure values on the 15th on the 72° jet curve does not look like a recipe for weakness at this time.On the chart a low pressure trough is drawn along the axis of the 72° jet curve from the lunar eclipse. We can see that the storm will be runnig right into a feature that can radically expand its energies. Let's hope that this is not an accurate forecast.