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Ivan Landfall; September 04 - 09.16.04


The predicted landfall for Ivan evaded Doc Weather. But the actual landfall was right on the button for the planetary patterns linked to this event.



Fig.1


Fig.1

The prediction made by Doc Weather that Ivan would have a landfall on the west coast of Florida contained a critical error. The error was that the node shifted to low pressure on both of the eastern eclipse points on the 14th of September instead of late on the 15th. The thinking was that the shift to low pressure on the 72° jet curve from the lunar eclipse point at 19° Aries on the 15th would cause the ridge to the east of Florida to break down and bring down a trough to steer the storm to the east into Florida. This was supposing that the low-pressure value could let the trough drop far south enough in time to intercept the storm tracking around the western tip of Cuba.

As it turned out the trough never dropped far enough south into the Mississippi valley to erode the ridge. Instead the storm followed a much more logical path than that. It simply locked on to the 72° jet curve from the lunar eclipse that was under a low-pressure influence on the 14th and rode that line like an arrow on the 15th and then smacked into the Gulf Coast on the 16th still tracking the 72° jet curve. In hindsight this is so obvious a track as to be painful to old Doc for being blind to it. Ivan tracked perfectly along the 72° jet curve as soon as the storm locked on to it on the 14th, the very day that the node shifted from high-pressure to strong low pressure on the eclipse point that was the source of the tracking line. It couldn't have been more classic and example of planetary flux influences and the effectiveness of jet curves in predicting tracks. To soon we grow old; too late smart.