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Current El Nino Update. - 10.25.04

Comparison of Doc Weather forecast for El Nino and the current outlook from the National Weather Service.

---In the autumn of 2003 Doc Weather took a look at the potential for El Nino /La Nina events in the eastern Pacific for the coming year. This was the prediction at that time.

In June and July of 2004 look for a strong response near the important dateline area, that should give climatologists the advanced warning that an El Nino is underway.

---This is the current status of the Eastern Pacific according to the climatologists at the National Weather Service / Climatic Prediction Center.

The increase and eastward expansion of the area of anomalous warmth in the central equatorial Pacific during July-September indicate the early stages of a warm (El Niņo) episode.

---On the future development of the El Nino event a year ago Doc Weather gave this prediction.

In early December the buildup of warmth in the eastern Pacific should slacken due to a Mercury retrograde motion near Hawaii at that time. In the beginning of December the growing character of the moderate El Nino should fade for a few weeks. Overall it looks like a moderate El Nino this fall since there should be a pause in the surge due to the Mercury loop. In early January 2005 the surge should once again pick up and peak moderately at midmonth then fade very slowly until mid February 2005 when the moderate El Nino impulse should be over.

---The National Weather Service has this to say.

The NOAA operational definition for El Niņo [Oceanic Niņo Index (ONI), a three-month running mean of the Niņo 3.4 index, greater than or equal to +0.5°C] was satisfied for the period June-August 2004, with an ONI value of +0.7°C. Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that SST anomalies in the Niņo 3.4 region will remain positive, at or above +0.5°C, through early 2005.

---As we move on into December it will be interesting to watch the NWS reports on the developing El Nino event. Remember that you heard it first on Doc Weather.