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El Nino Outlook- 2005 - 07.13.04
In Doc Weather the approach to El Nino studies is linked to the motions of the planets. This article surveys some of these movements in 2005 and makes a forecast.
Fig.1
Doc Weather uses the subtle geometries of a technique called planetary flux to predict the severity and onset times of El Nino and La Nina events. Planetary flux makes use of the retrograde and direct motions of planets that are transiting the Pacific Ocean during a calendar year. To determine if a planet is transiting a specific terrestrial longitude another technique called geodetic equivalency is used. An epidemiologist named Sepharial early in the 1900's developed geodetic equivalency. Using world-wide epidemics as a basis, Sepharial developed a way to project planetary positions onto terrestrial coordinates by tracking the onset of epidemics on an ephemeris. Information about this system can be found in a publication of the American Federation of Astrologers called the Geodetic World Map, the author is Chris McRae. The chart in figure 1 is an adaptation of the world map of Sepharial that is used to chart planetary flux over the Pacific.
During the decade of the 1990�(tm)s there was a tremendous surge in the incidence of El Nino events over the Pacific. Most authorities considered global warming,, to be the prime source of these unusual events. At that time research done by this author showed that the motion of the planet Mars across the Pacific late in the year was linked to the onset of El Nino events. Further research revealed that this motion alone could not give sufficiently accurate modeling tools for the prediction of El Nino events. During the great El Nino of 1998 it became clear that a strong element in the onset and severity of El Nino events was the linkage between the position in longitude of a planet over the Pacific and its period of retrograde motion. Making graphs of the month-to-month Sea Surface Temperature (SST) fluctuations over the Pacific going back to 1950 and indexing these changes against the positions of planets and their retrograde periods established this. From this work a paper on the canonical El Nino emerged.
Fig.2
In the short version of the el nino workfound in Doc Weather Basics it is explained that, when a planet is moving direct (west to east), the motion of the SSTs has tended towards rising, in the area to the east of the planet. When a planet is moving in retrograde motion (east to west), SSTs have tended to rise to the west of the planet. It appears as if the planet by moving from east to west were somehow impeding the flow of warm water from west to east. These motions are the most basic idea in the planetary flux analysis of El Nino. When one planet is moving retrograde to the west and is positioned to the east of a planet that is moving direct (west to east) then the space between them is often the site of unusual fluctuations of SSTs. This is called a squeeze . These relationships are depicted in figure 2.
An example from the El Nino of 1998 can serve to illustrate how these ideas function in reality. Late in 1997 there was a strong pool of warm water in the eastern Pacific. Pluto was near Hawaii moving direct or west to east. Mars crossed Pluto in late September. At that time Pluto and Mars were both moving direct from Hawaii. At that time a cluster of Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune were moving retrograde in Nino 1+2 near to the west coast of Peru. (fig 3) This placement meant that the two sets of planets were putting a squeeze pattern on the area between Hawaii and the west coast of California. This squeeze was coincident with a strong rise in SSTs in eastern Nino 3.4.
Fig.3
As Mars continued eastward past Pluto during November and December and then crossed into Central America, the warmth plume from Hawaii continued following its passage into the coast. This west to east flow was supported earlier in the fall as first Neptune and then Uranus went direct in October, followed by Jupiter in November. By December there was an enormous pool of warm water off of the coast of California and yet, curiously, no storms arrived although many were predicted. This hesitation of a record El Nino was coincident with the simultaneous retrograde loops of both Mercury and Venus in Nino 1&2 (fig 4). First Mercury went direct in December but a few days later Venus went retrograde. The storms held off coming into the coast. Climate experts saw this hesitation as very unusual.
Fig.4
n late November and early December, there had been an unusually dry fall and early winter pattern for the West Coast. However, since early in September 1997 dire predictions had been made for the onset of the El Nino. A blue ribbon panel of climatologists hired by the governor of California had predicted a very wet fall and early winter due to the large pool of warm water off of California being brought east from mid Pacific with an El Nino pattern. The expectation was that in November and December strong storms would come into the coast as the Pacific jet stream dropped down into California. When this didn�(tm)t happen, those same experts published conflicting reports in December. They now actually began to doubt the onset of an El Nino at all.
The unusual dryness continued through January and it was not until the middle of February that storms began to come into the coast. This shift was exactly coincident with the direct motion of Venus in Nino 1&2. Venus had been retrograde in that position since December 26. Using planetary flux models to look at this, it appears that the retrograde motion of Venus held off the flux of the vast body of warm water until the planet began direct motion. The planetary motions were in exact coincidence with the climatic changes.
All of this brings us to the present year of 2005. Starting in the spring of 2004 there should be indications of a blooming El Nino, as the western Pacific should show signs of an unusual warming. The planetary flux shows Jupiter in the western Pacific early in 2004. This often signals warmth buildup. In June and July of 2004 look for a strong response near the important dateline area, that should give climatologists the advanced warning that an El Nino is underway. This moderate warmth surge from the west should continue into the Pacific near Hawaii through November 2004. In the early winter 2004-05 the eastern Pacific pattern has Pluto near Hawaii being crossed by Mercury, Venus and Mars late in 2004 and early in 2005. This planetary flux pattern is an east Pacific cluster and it often indicates an El Nino event. (fig.5) December 2004)
Fig.5
In early December the buildup of warmth in the eastern Pacific should slacken due to a Mercury retrograde motion near Hawaii at that time. In the beginning of December the growing character of the moderate El Nino should fade for a few weeks. Overall it looks like a moderate El Nino this fall since there should be a pause in the surge due to the Mercury loop. In early January 2005 the surge should once again pick up and peak moderately at midmonth then fade very slowly until mid February 2005 when the moderate El Nino impulse should be over.