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Canonical el nino | Part 2 - 09.09.04
The second part of this article gives a case study from the historic records to illustrate the idea of retrograde motion relating to el nino.
In the previous segment Canonical el nino the patterns of warm sea water in the Pacific ocean that constitute the el nino phenomena were linked to the direct and retrograde motion of the planets across the Pacific. These patterns of retrograde and direct motion have proven to be highly coincident with the seasonal fluctuations of warm and cool water in the Pacific. This was originally studied by gridding month- by- month SST values in all sectors of the Pacific since 1980. Retrograde and direct motion values and time frames for each month were then integrated into the SST values. Strong correspondences in this study provided the basis for this article.
Since the pool of warmth builds in the western Pacific every year, and every year there is a gathering of warmth at the dateline in the spring, it seems logical that there is an influence that supports this. Some years, the pool of warm water at mid Pacific finds support for flowing to the east at midsummer in the end of June. This is precisely the time period for a shift in direction of any outer planet positioned in celestial longitude near the dateline. The case study that follows shows that if slower, outer planets are at the dateline, there are often strong shifts in activity in the autumn of that year.
This is the general rule. However, this pattern is affected by two variables. The first is that initial conditions greatly effect whether or not it is warmth or cold that is in flux. If cool water is to the west when a planet goes direct, then the records show that there will often be cool water going to the east for the next few months. If warm water is to the west when a planet goes direct, then the records show, that there will often be warm water going to the east in the next few months.
The second variable that disturbs the flow of water in response to planetary motion is the intrusion of a loop of Mars, Mercury, or Venus over the Pacific in a given year. These retrograde movements greatly modify the canonical el niño into biennial and decadal rhythms. The record el niño of 1997/ 98 was stopped dead in its tracks by a combined retrograde motion of Mercury and Venus in the eastern Pacific in December of 1997. Only when they went direct did the el niño influenced weather patterns move into the coast. The looping rhythms of the inner planets have proven to be coincident with such unusual conditions in a given season. The qualities of the effects are the same for inner planets as they are for outer planets. The effects are just placed into slower or faster time frames depending upon the periodicities of the individual planets. The counterpoints in the rhythms of these events can be used to analyze the different permutations of the emergence of the el nino and la nina phenomena.
In the previously mentioned studies, it was found that an outer planet near the dateline with a supporting outer planet in the east Pacific was often sufficient to produce the symptoms of a weak el niño. What would be needed to enhance the el niño flux in this situation would be the transit of a quickly moving planet in the proper time window to link the warm and cool flows across the Pacific. The pattern would then be that the slower moving planets would provide a basic condition for the el niño and the faster moving planets would provide the rapid acceleration needed to support enhanced conditions of movement from the dateline. This pattern can be sketched quickly by analyzing the years 1975/76, a la nina year and 1976/77, an el nino year.
Fig.1
In February of 1975 (figure 1) Pluto and Uranus were retrograde in positions west of the dateline, coincident with a warming of the western Pacific, with Neptune direct in Niño 3.4.These positions would seem to have potential for stimulating warmth in the eastern Pacific since there are two planets there and two planets at the dateline. However, these positions do not of themselves give a strong picture of an el niño.
As it was said earlier, what would be needed in a situation like this would be for an inner planet to be at the dateline at the summer solstice and then transit the central and eastern Pacific in the Fall of the year to support the eastward flux of warmth. In 1974 this was not the case. The Mars transit started in the western Pacific in July �~74. This placed Mars in the western sector of Niño 4 in the end of October �~74, and in December �~74 Mars was in the longitude of Hawaii. This is too late to be so far west. In order to be effective Mars needs to be at the dateline by the middle of June so that the transit into the eastern Pacific in December is coincident with the canonical el niño. As a result, in the fall of 1974 and the winter of 1975 there was very little support from the planetary rhythms for the canonical flux. This contributed to a la nina- like cooling of SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) in the eastern and central Pacific for the beginning of 1975. This cool pool gradually grew cooler throughout 1975.
Fig.2
From a planetary perspective, this continued cooling trend arose around other retarding factors, these being a retrograde loop of Venus in nino 4 in August �~75 and a Mercury loop at the dateline in October �~75 (figure 2). Starting with a cold pool in winter, the placement of inner planet loops in the Pacific in 1975 was coincident with continued cooling. Blocking highs will often form in the longitude of inner planet loops pushing the jet to the north. Experiments have shown that a warm ocean current fluxing to the east in the Pacific will often react to a loop, evidenced by falling SSTs in the longitude of the loop. A pattern like this can be seen as the seed of the cooling trend in 1975
In the Autumn of 1975 the Mercury loop was in the dateline area. This was coincident with a cooling of the ocean in the longitude of the loop. Mars was transiting Africa in October 1975, and would not be an influence during that year. When Mars and Mercury are in sync the flux against the coast in the tropical Pacific is often strong and direct. When they cancel each other the flux appears to stop. The inter-decadal shifting of loops and transits has proven to be useful in modeling the seasonal variations of the canonical el niño.
Fig.3
In the next year, 1975/76, (figure 3) Uranus and Pluto were still near the dateline, and Neptune was entering Niño 3, these were still good positions to support a canonical el niño. Mars and Mercury started 1976 moving direct over the far Atlantic, out of play for the Pacific flux. During the spring and summer of �~76 Mars transited Europe, Asia and the Indian Ocean to end up at the dateline in October �~76. This motion supported the important Uranus and Pluto direct motion in arc at the dateline at that time. But in itself was not a deciding factor since Mars was so far to the west so late in the year. However during the summer of 1976 Mercury had accompanied Mars across the Indian Ocean and then across the western Pacific going into October�(tm)76. In planetary flux theory this is a tandem transit. This kind of pattern is often coincident with an abnormal warmth flux in the eastern Pacific.
Fig.4
In 1976, the tandem motions of Mars and Mercury, were coincident with a warmth surge from Indonesia towards the dateline in late summer. Mercury went retrograde in the middle of October but the loop was far to the west of the dateline, in Niño 5. Mars continued to move eastward and passed Hawaii in November and in December, and was in a perfect position to parallel Neptune in the eastern Pacific and support a warmth flux from the dateline to Niño 1&2 in December�(tm)76 /January�(tm)77. Coincidentally, 1976/77 was an el niño year. These sequences were unusual in that between September 1975 and February �~76 there was a severe cooling event in the eastern Pacific. By June �~76 this trend had reversed into a severe warming event. The looping and tandem transit rhythms of Mercury and Mars were coincident and reflected these severe shifts in Sea Surface Temperatures.
The classic el niño of 1982/83 and 1997/98 have been the subject of a much more detailed study and their descriptions go beyond the scope of this present paper. Those years, and the unusual Pacific warming trend of the 90�(tm)s, fit very easily into the parameters given in this work. When working with the planetary flux model, remarkable coincidences between planetary motion and the shifts of the ocean / atmosphere linkages can often be observed.