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Northeast OOPS! - 08.23.05
The essence of weather is change. The forecast busts when the forecaster forgets this fundamental rule.
Thanks go out to subscriber Christopher Gray for gently reminding Doc weather not to forget the Northeast. This summer season Doc Weather has not given very reliable forecasts for the good people in New England. In looking back over the records the forecasts were right on target until about the first week of June. Then the predictive rate tanked. This happened when a strong high built up over the southeast that brought warm currents of air northeastward into New England. The high looked like this on June12th.
Fig.1
On the eclipse grid the source of this high was a pair of 45�° jet curves that are also depicted in figure 1. In making a forecast Doc Weather could see from the activity of the node and a Mars approach to the eclipse points over the eastern Atlantic, that this area would be the source of high-pressure in this summer season. Unfortunately, Doc Weather forgot the fundamental rule of forecasting; EVERYTHING CHANGES! What changed was that in the winter, high-pressure showing up on jet curves placed in these positions would create a blocking high at a high latitude. That would look like this.
Fig.2
The winter high-pressure area sits off the coast of the Maritimes and doesn't allow the passage of the continental jet to exit the continent easily. When that happens the jet stream backs up over the continent, forms a trough over the Northeast and cold comes down the western leg of the trough into New England.
Seeing all the high-pressure show up from the activity of Mars and the node when he was forming the forecast, Doc Weather simply continued in a winter �"spring mode instead of realizing that June is the month climatologically for the rapid buildup of the Bermuda high. The Bermuda high builds up from the south and sits at a low- latitude off of the East Coast. The farther east the high is situated the warmer the conditions for the East Coast. A more westerly placement brings moisture into the Gulf Coast and a still more westerly placement brings moisture into the Midwest during June, July and August. These are the three months for the strongest influence from the Bermuda high.
An error like this made two years ago when the forecasts were made is difficult to correct on the fly. So as a result the New England forecast was a bust this summer. Thanks again to Christopher for the heads up. These lessons learned the hard way are often the door to greater insight.